As we’ve discussed previously, we don’t often take the time to review reports, statistics, numbers, and percentages for the Tampa Bay single-family home market here.
But it’s the end of another quarter and considering that our very last post was about the ominous prospect of a will-it-or-won’t-it bubble, we thought it would be best to review facts – and not forecasts – to put our collective minds at ease.
And PLOT TWIST: All numbers are up, up, up – except inventory, which, if you’ve been following along – or in the market to buy – isn’t all that surprising.
We reviewed two July 2019 reports – the Complete Market Stats and the Economist Market Update – for single-family homes in Hillsborough County to pleasantly discover that most of the indicators for July 2019 were positive.
Hooray and hallelujah!
- Sales Closed: 2,075 | Compared with July 2018: 1,989 | Up 4.3%
The Economist explains that ‘closed sales are one of the simplest—yet most important—indicators for the residential real estate market. When comparing Closed Sales across markets of different sizes, we recommend comparing the percent changes in sales rather than the number of sales. Closed Sales (and many other market metrics) are affected by seasonal cycles, so actual trends are more accurately represented by year-over-year changes (i.e. comparing a month’s sales to the amount of sales in the same month in the previous year), rather than changes from one month to the next.’
- Median Sale Price: $258,000 | Compared with July 2018: $255,340 | Up 1.0%
The Economist explains that the ‘median sale price is our preferred summary statistic for price activity because, unlike Average Sale Price, Median Sale Price is not sensitive to high sale prices for small numbers of homes that may not be characteristic of the market area. Keep in mind that median price trends over time are not always solely caused by changes in the general value of local real estate. Median sale price only reflects the values of the homes that sold each month, and the mix of the types of homes that sell can change over time.’
- Average Sale Price: $321,689 | Compared with July 2018: $311,245 | Up 3.4%
The Economist explains that they prefer ‘median sale price over average sale price as a summary statistic for home prices. However, Average Sale Price does have its uses—particularly when it is analyzed alongside the Median Sale Price. For one, the relative difference between the two statistics can provide some insight into the market for higher-end homes in an area.’
- New Listings: 2,238 | Compared with July 2018: 2,174 | Up 2.9%
The Economist explains that ‘new listings tend to rise in delayed response to increasing prices, so they are often seen as a lagging indicator of market health. As prices rise, potential sellers raise their estimations of value—and in the most recent cycle, rising prices have freed up many potential sellers who were previously underwater on their mortgages. Note that in our calculations, we take care to not include properties that were recently taken off the market and quickly relisted, since these are not really new listings.’
- Inventory (Active Listings): 4,468 | Compared with July 2018: 4,468 | Down -2.1%
The Economist explains that ‘there are a number of ways to define and calculate Inventory. Our method is to simply count the number of active listings on the last day of the month, and hold this number to compare with the same month the following year. Inventory rises when New Listings are outpacing the number of listings that go off-market (regardless of whether they actually sell). Likewise, it falls when New Listings aren’t keeping up with the rate at which homes are going off-market.’
At DeLeon Sheffield Company, we’re in this for the long haul – regardless of market conditions – because we’ve been through it all to guide our clients as they navigate home buying and selling.
Because at DeLeon Sheffield Company, ‘We’re More Than Realty; We’re Family.’
